The Scottish government’s latest Oil and Gas Analytical Bulletin (OGAB) (1) now reflects the lower oil price landscape that has been evident since last Autumn. As a result, scenarios for Scottish North Sea tax revenues (or receipts) have been subjected to substantial downward revisions since the last estimates made in May 2014.

For example, for the financial year 2018-19, the previous edition projected a range from £3.2 billion to £8 billion, whereas the latest edition has a range from £0.7 billion to £2.8 billion.

This analysis looks at the assumptions underlying the different scenarios outlined in the Scottish government’s latest (third) publication, the key changes in relation to the previous OGAB, the main results and recommendations for changes to improve it…

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